Yovani Gallardo vs Arizona Diamondbacks Batters
Out of 40 at-bats against the current Diamondbacks hitters, only Chris Snyder has been able to drive home some runs - two to be exact - against Gallardo and no other Diamondbacks have more than one hit off Gallardo in at least three at-bats. The Diamondbacks are a combined 9 for 40, compiling a .225 BA, 5 BB, and 14 K. Four of those strikeouts belong to Mark Reynolds, who earned the golden sombrero at home on August 20th of 2007.
Yovani Gallardo vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallardo not only owns a 2-0 lifetime record, but also has a 0.00 ERA against the Diamondbacks in two starts - winning both the home and away games in his 2007 rookie season. In 12 innings - going 6 in both starts - Gallardo has given up 8 hits while issuing 3 bases on balls and striking out 10.
Trends and Injuries
Gallardo is straight-up cruising right now. After a sluggish start to the 2010 season due to control issues, Gallardo has won three straight, during which he's only allowed just one earned run in 18 innings while striking out 25.
Arizona's offense, on the other hand, has been very hot all year - an exact opposite of its pitching - and is currently second in the league in runs scored and OPS. The Diamondbacks also own the highest OPS (.885), are third in the league in batting average (.293), and have yet to be shut out at home.
Opposing Pitcher
Edwin Jackson will make his seventh start for the Diamondbacks, after having given up 18 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings over the last two. Jackson has been better at home than on the road, but his home start numbers aren't pretty by any means, with a 4.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .282 BAA.
The Call: Start
All the numbers and trends point to a high-confidence start for Yavani Gallardo except for the fact that the Arizona offense has been potent this year, especially at home. If I were a pessimist, I would bank on Gallardo's nice streak coming to an end and the Diamondbacks jumping all over him at home. But in fantasy baseball, we have to stick to the numbers and the trends and since most of the signs point to a good outing by Gallardo, he's a must-start. The Therapist foresees that Gallardo will go 6 IP 4 H 2 ER 1 HR 2 BB 9 K for the win.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Start or Sit: Jeff Niemann at Mariners
In order to not only survive, but do well in fantasy, you have to keep your reality in check and away from your fantasy.
Just because you love the Seattle Mariners, you cannot load up on M's arms nor stock up on M's bats. Doug Fister will get pounded right when you finally decide to start him at home against the Oakland Athletics, and with or without help from his team, Milton Bradley is simply not a fantasy baseball contributor.
I'm talking about the M's not just because it's my hometown team that I've been following since 1990 - after a brief one year infatuation with the San Francisco Giants - but I am conflicted about starting the Tampa Bay right-hander Jeff Niemann against them at Safeco Field.
Putting my personal feelings for the M's aside, let's just get to the analysis.
Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners Batters
Niemann's seen relative success against the bats of M's, holding the core group (Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Ken Griffey Jr, and Jose Lopez) to BA of .250 or below in six or more plate appearances, except for Chone Figgins, who owns a 4 for 6 mark and 3 RBI. Despite the low BAA, the M's have made their hits count, with 3 of 7 hits being home runs.
Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners
Niemann owns a 1-0 record against the Mariners in three starts, the lone win coming in his away start at Safeco, where he gave up three runs, all of them coming on a HR by Lopez in the 5th. In his second start at Safeco, he went on to give up two more HRs (Russell Branyan and Jr) and ended up yielding four runs in total, the latter two scoring with him pulled from the game. In his start against the M's at home, he gave up three runs, two of which came on a HR by Ichiro. In two starts at Safeco, Niemann has a 4.63 ERA, .094 WHIP and .190 BAA, giving up 6 ER on 8 H and 3 BB to go with 8 K in 11 2/3 IP.
Trends and Injuries
Niemann's K/9 has declined this year while he's been giving up more home runs, both of which are disturbing signs. On the other hand, he still owns an ERA of 2.96 to go along with WHIP of 1.02. His xFIP sits at 4.89, so we can bet that his ERA should balloon at any point.
The Mariners are on a 5-game losing streak as the Rays offense have seemingly awoke from a slumber, having scored 13 runs in the last two games after scoring just 5 in the previous 3 games at home against the Kansas City Royals. During the losing streak, the M's have scored just nine runs, batting a collective .190.
Opposing Pitcher
The Rays face Ryan Rowland-Smith, in a rematch of last September's game in Tampa that the M's ended up winning on what turned out to be a game-winning homer by Lopez in the 8th. The Hyphen is not having the same type of success he saw in the second half of last year after coming off the DL. Currently, he holds 5.28 ERA and 1.38 WHIP overall, but is holding opponents to a .167 BAA at home in two starts. The big Australian left-hander has been pretty tough against the Rays bats, holding them to a collective .233 BA, Willy Aybar, Carl Crawford, and Evan Longoria being the only Rays regulars with .333 or better BA.
The Call: Start
Putting my fondness for my M's aside, I'm cautiously optimistic about Niemann's chance at a win and pretty good peripherals.
Just because you love the Seattle Mariners, you cannot load up on M's arms nor stock up on M's bats. Doug Fister will get pounded right when you finally decide to start him at home against the Oakland Athletics, and with or without help from his team, Milton Bradley is simply not a fantasy baseball contributor.
I'm talking about the M's not just because it's my hometown team that I've been following since 1990 - after a brief one year infatuation with the San Francisco Giants - but I am conflicted about starting the Tampa Bay right-hander Jeff Niemann against them at Safeco Field.
Putting my personal feelings for the M's aside, let's just get to the analysis.
Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners Batters
Niemann's seen relative success against the bats of M's, holding the core group (Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Ken Griffey Jr, and Jose Lopez) to BA of .250 or below in six or more plate appearances, except for Chone Figgins, who owns a 4 for 6 mark and 3 RBI. Despite the low BAA, the M's have made their hits count, with 3 of 7 hits being home runs.
Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners
Niemann owns a 1-0 record against the Mariners in three starts, the lone win coming in his away start at Safeco, where he gave up three runs, all of them coming on a HR by Lopez in the 5th. In his second start at Safeco, he went on to give up two more HRs (Russell Branyan and Jr) and ended up yielding four runs in total, the latter two scoring with him pulled from the game. In his start against the M's at home, he gave up three runs, two of which came on a HR by Ichiro. In two starts at Safeco, Niemann has a 4.63 ERA, .094 WHIP and .190 BAA, giving up 6 ER on 8 H and 3 BB to go with 8 K in 11 2/3 IP.
Trends and Injuries
Niemann's K/9 has declined this year while he's been giving up more home runs, both of which are disturbing signs. On the other hand, he still owns an ERA of 2.96 to go along with WHIP of 1.02. His xFIP sits at 4.89, so we can bet that his ERA should balloon at any point.
The Mariners are on a 5-game losing streak as the Rays offense have seemingly awoke from a slumber, having scored 13 runs in the last two games after scoring just 5 in the previous 3 games at home against the Kansas City Royals. During the losing streak, the M's have scored just nine runs, batting a collective .190.
Opposing Pitcher
The Rays face Ryan Rowland-Smith, in a rematch of last September's game in Tampa that the M's ended up winning on what turned out to be a game-winning homer by Lopez in the 8th. The Hyphen is not having the same type of success he saw in the second half of last year after coming off the DL. Currently, he holds 5.28 ERA and 1.38 WHIP overall, but is holding opponents to a .167 BAA at home in two starts. The big Australian left-hander has been pretty tough against the Rays bats, holding them to a collective .233 BA, Willy Aybar, Carl Crawford, and Evan Longoria being the only Rays regulars with .333 or better BA.
The Call: Start
Putting my fondness for my M's aside, I'm cautiously optimistic about Niemann's chance at a win and pretty good peripherals.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Start or Sit: Chad Billingsley vs Brewers
I have a personal fondness for the Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley.
Ever since his whiff*-appeal caught my eyes on The Cube in 2006, I've been a fan.
After a beautiful full-season debut in 2007 where he won 12 games - posting 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 131 K in 147 innings - Billingsley improved on those numbers the next year - posting an ERA of 3.14 in 200 2/3 innings, striking out full 9 per frame - en route to winning 16 games.
Billingsley continued his success in 2009, putting up 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 119 K, in 19 first half starts while logging 125 1/3 innings.
Then after the All-Star break, Billingsley was pounded by the Houston Astros at home, lasting just 1 2/3 innings and giving up 6 runs on 9 hits. Post-break he went on to start 14 games, but failed to log 30 IP in each month of the second half, including another 1 2/3 IP outing (at home against the San Francisco Giants, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks).
It may not be an overstatement for me to say that Chad Billinsley single-handedly ruined my 2009 fantasy baseball season in the second half. Despite this very personal sabotage, I'm still a Billingsley fan, but I'm proceeding with some caution this year.
Billingsley's success in 2007 and 2008 was due to his ability to squirm out of jams, as his LOB% was significantly above average. In the current year, his LOB% has decreased, following the trend set in the past year.
In five 2010 starts thus far, Billingsley has presented us with both the Top-Billingsley (@PIT, WAS, and PIT) and the Bottom-Billingsley (ARI and @CIN), while posting a hefty H/9 of over 10 - compared to 8.3 H/9 in the past four years - along with 4.1 BB/9.
So which Billingsley will show up at Dodger Stadium hosting the Milwaukee Brewers?
The Gut says Bottom-Billingsley, without a doubt. But of course, we have to look into the numbers and the trends.
Chad Billingsley vs Milwaukee Brewers Batters
In his four previous seasons, Billinsley has a brilliant BAA against the current lineup of Brewers (.135 in 52 AB), but with a healthy number of bases allowed on balls.
Chad Billingsley vs Milwaukee Brewers
Billingsley has gone 3-2 in three starts and two relief appearances against the Brewers posting an overall numbers of 20 2/3 IP, 18 H, 12 ER, 10 BB, and 17 K for a 5.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .231 BAA. In two starts at Miller Park, Billingsley went 1-0 with 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, giving up 6 ER in 13 IP. In his lone start at home, Billingsley notched a win by giving up 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, and striking out 5, with two of the runs being scored on a Gabe Kapler HR.
Trends and Injuries
Coming off a decent outing at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Billingsley dispelled rumors that he was hiding an injury, but displayed control that was still suspect. The Brewers are 4th from last in total runs scored in the past seven days, despite a huge offensive outburst against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen last night.
Opposing Pitcher
Doug Davis will get lit up by the Dodgers. They basically own him.
The Call: Sit
Billingsley has pretty good numbers against the current core of the Brewers batters (Ryan Braun, Cecil Fielder, and Rickie Weeks). His career numbers against the Brewers are tainted by batters other than those previously mentioned. Billingsley still seems to be struggling with his command. He's successes this year have come against the Pirates and Nationals. All these factors indicate that Billingsley's going to allow base runners and will be pitching out of the stretch constantly, which means trouble. He may come out with a victory if he can last five frames, but the damage to the ERA and WHIP may not be worth it.
* Basically another term for stuff: HIP (WHIP minus W) plus K/9 rate
Ever since his whiff*-appeal caught my eyes on The Cube in 2006, I've been a fan.
After a beautiful full-season debut in 2007 where he won 12 games - posting 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 131 K in 147 innings - Billingsley improved on those numbers the next year - posting an ERA of 3.14 in 200 2/3 innings, striking out full 9 per frame - en route to winning 16 games.
Billingsley continued his success in 2009, putting up 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 119 K, in 19 first half starts while logging 125 1/3 innings.
Then after the All-Star break, Billingsley was pounded by the Houston Astros at home, lasting just 1 2/3 innings and giving up 6 runs on 9 hits. Post-break he went on to start 14 games, but failed to log 30 IP in each month of the second half, including another 1 2/3 IP outing (at home against the San Francisco Giants, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks).
It may not be an overstatement for me to say that Chad Billinsley single-handedly ruined my 2009 fantasy baseball season in the second half. Despite this very personal sabotage, I'm still a Billingsley fan, but I'm proceeding with some caution this year.
Billingsley's success in 2007 and 2008 was due to his ability to squirm out of jams, as his LOB% was significantly above average. In the current year, his LOB% has decreased, following the trend set in the past year.
In five 2010 starts thus far, Billingsley has presented us with both the Top-Billingsley (@PIT, WAS, and PIT) and the Bottom-Billingsley (ARI and @CIN), while posting a hefty H/9 of over 10 - compared to 8.3 H/9 in the past four years - along with 4.1 BB/9.
So which Billingsley will show up at Dodger Stadium hosting the Milwaukee Brewers?
The Gut says Bottom-Billingsley, without a doubt. But of course, we have to look into the numbers and the trends.
Chad Billingsley vs Milwaukee Brewers Batters
In his four previous seasons, Billinsley has a brilliant BAA against the current lineup of Brewers (.135 in 52 AB), but with a healthy number of bases allowed on balls.
Chad Billingsley vs Milwaukee Brewers
Billingsley has gone 3-2 in three starts and two relief appearances against the Brewers posting an overall numbers of 20 2/3 IP, 18 H, 12 ER, 10 BB, and 17 K for a 5.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .231 BAA. In two starts at Miller Park, Billingsley went 1-0 with 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, giving up 6 ER in 13 IP. In his lone start at home, Billingsley notched a win by giving up 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, and striking out 5, with two of the runs being scored on a Gabe Kapler HR.
Trends and Injuries
Coming off a decent outing at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Billingsley dispelled rumors that he was hiding an injury, but displayed control that was still suspect. The Brewers are 4th from last in total runs scored in the past seven days, despite a huge offensive outburst against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen last night.
Opposing Pitcher
Doug Davis will get lit up by the Dodgers. They basically own him.
The Call: Sit
Billingsley has pretty good numbers against the current core of the Brewers batters (Ryan Braun, Cecil Fielder, and Rickie Weeks). His career numbers against the Brewers are tainted by batters other than those previously mentioned. Billingsley still seems to be struggling with his command. He's successes this year have come against the Pirates and Nationals. All these factors indicate that Billingsley's going to allow base runners and will be pitching out of the stretch constantly, which means trouble. He may come out with a victory if he can last five frames, but the damage to the ERA and WHIP may not be worth it.
* Basically another term for stuff: HIP (WHIP minus W) plus K/9 rate
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Start or Sit: Ricky Romero at Indians
Ricky Martin has forever tainted the name, "Ricky."
But Toronto Blue Jay Romero is bringing it back to respectability.
Automatic start tonight at Cleveland against the below-average Indians?
After a quick glance at the pitcher vs batters numbers and the fact that at least third of the Indians lineup is comprised of lefties, I was inclined to say, "Yes," to the above question.
But then I checked out Romero's L/R splits, just to make sure. Romero's only been around the majors since 2009, so I wasn't entirely satisfied with his splits from last year, which showed that lefties touched him up for 10 HR in 55 1/3 IP (compared to 8 HR in 122 2/3 IP for righties). So I turned to minorleaguesplits.com.
Disturbing, right? Lefties hit better off Romero in his minor league career.
Adding to the poor lefty vs lefty minor and major league splits is the fact that the Indians best hitters are lefties (Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo).
I can still see Romero coming out of this battle in Cleveland with a win (his opposition Jake Westbrook hasn't been very good this year and the Jays have been hitting well of late - 3rd with . 489 SLG in the league during the past 7 days), but I'm afraid that the ERA and WHIP may be a bit bloated and K mediocre.
I'm not taking a chance: I'm sitting Ricky Romero.
But Toronto Blue Jay Romero is bringing it back to respectability.
Automatic start tonight at Cleveland against the below-average Indians?
After a quick glance at the pitcher vs batters numbers and the fact that at least third of the Indians lineup is comprised of lefties, I was inclined to say, "Yes," to the above question.
But then I checked out Romero's L/R splits, just to make sure. Romero's only been around the majors since 2009, so I wasn't entirely satisfied with his splits from last year, which showed that lefties touched him up for 10 HR in 55 1/3 IP (compared to 8 HR in 122 2/3 IP for righties). So I turned to minorleaguesplits.com.
Disturbing, right? Lefties hit better off Romero in his minor league career.
Adding to the poor lefty vs lefty minor and major league splits is the fact that the Indians best hitters are lefties (Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo).
I can still see Romero coming out of this battle in Cleveland with a win (his opposition Jake Westbrook hasn't been very good this year and the Jays have been hitting well of late - 3rd with . 489 SLG in the league during the past 7 days), but I'm afraid that the ERA and WHIP may be a bit bloated and K mediocre.
I'm not taking a chance: I'm sitting Ricky Romero.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Bruce Bochy Botches Another
Juggling fantasy sports and real life can be hard. Juggling fantasy sport and real life while major league managers screw you over is harder than just juggling fantasy sports and real life.
Without enough time to look into the details of the numbers behind Jonathan Sanchez vs the Colorado Rockies, along with the recent run of relative success, I decided to rolled with the young San Francisco Giant lefty.
Oops.
The result (4 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K) wasn't the worst start ever, but it was completely worthless, with regards to my team's main concern: wins.
After watching Sanchez struggle with his command (including a hit batter) through four-plus and the pitch-count nearing the century mark, it's understandable that Bruce Douglas Bochy must had been compelled to call upon Brandon Medders in the 5th with runners at the corners and two outs. But bringing in the righty Medders with lefty Giambi coming up? Hmmm.
Yes, of course, instead of getting an out, Medders was peppered around for three straight hits after walking Giambi, and only got bailed out when Ryan Spilborghs was tagged out when he wrongly assumed that the throw from left field would not be cut off by Pablo Sandoval.
After the game, Bochy said that Sanchez "was done." At times we criticize managers for leaving their young arms in for too many pitch counts, but this is a time when we criticize the manager for making a stupid move.
Not only has Sanchez not allowed a left-handed hit off him in 17 ab-bats this year, Bochy also had lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler available in the bullpen. But Bochy was dead set on botching it, going with the right hander who couldn't get a single out.
Admittedly, Sanchez escaped some serious jams in the previous start against the Phillies, so I'm not taking this one too hard, and I shouldn't have expected the Giants to sweep the Rockies, but I would have rather seen Sanchez give up the runs in the 5th instead of Medders on a foolish mistake by Bochy.
In other news, Justin Verlander nearly went the distance (as his manager, Jim Leyland, yet again tried to give his ace an attempt at a pointless complete game - which nearly backfired on him) . . . on my bench, against the Los Angeles Angels, the same club that batted him around for 4 earned runs with 9 base runners just over a week ago. Oopsx2.
Sanchez reverting to the thrower with lack of control is a trend that needs to be considered carefully going forward while Verlander turning his season around is a welcomed sight.
Without enough time to look into the details of the numbers behind Jonathan Sanchez vs the Colorado Rockies, along with the recent run of relative success, I decided to rolled with the young San Francisco Giant lefty.
Oops.
The result (4 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K) wasn't the worst start ever, but it was completely worthless, with regards to my team's main concern: wins.
After watching Sanchez struggle with his command (including a hit batter) through four-plus and the pitch-count nearing the century mark, it's understandable that Bruce Douglas Bochy must had been compelled to call upon Brandon Medders in the 5th with runners at the corners and two outs. But bringing in the righty Medders with lefty Giambi coming up? Hmmm.Yes, of course, instead of getting an out, Medders was peppered around for three straight hits after walking Giambi, and only got bailed out when Ryan Spilborghs was tagged out when he wrongly assumed that the throw from left field would not be cut off by Pablo Sandoval.
After the game, Bochy said that Sanchez "was done." At times we criticize managers for leaving their young arms in for too many pitch counts, but this is a time when we criticize the manager for making a stupid move.
Not only has Sanchez not allowed a left-handed hit off him in 17 ab-bats this year, Bochy also had lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler available in the bullpen. But Bochy was dead set on botching it, going with the right hander who couldn't get a single out.
Admittedly, Sanchez escaped some serious jams in the previous start against the Phillies, so I'm not taking this one too hard, and I shouldn't have expected the Giants to sweep the Rockies, but I would have rather seen Sanchez give up the runs in the 5th instead of Medders on a foolish mistake by Bochy.
In other news, Justin Verlander nearly went the distance (as his manager, Jim Leyland, yet again tried to give his ace an attempt at a pointless complete game - which nearly backfired on him) . . . on my bench, against the Los Angeles Angels, the same club that batted him around for 4 earned runs with 9 base runners just over a week ago. Oopsx2.
Sanchez reverting to the thrower with lack of control is a trend that needs to be considered carefully going forward while Verlander turning his season around is a welcomed sight.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Start or Sit: Matt Cain vs Rockies
Despite the San Francisco starting Matt Cain's great career numbers against Colorado Rockies, a peek at his game log from last yearmakes me reconsider giving Cain the green light.
After relatively cruising through the first four starts, Cain seemingly hit a wall with the Rockies in town.
Then at Coors, less than a week after the pounding he took in SF, he totally shutdown the Rockies.
This year, Cain's also relatively cruised through the first four starts of the season. Will Rockies eat him up again in SF?
I don't know. Cain is unpredictable. But I'm sticking with him.
Yes, there's a chance that the SF bats will not show up again for Cain, but it's a chance I'm willing to take, since only Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart can hit Cain.
Start or sit? Start with slight trepidation.
After relatively cruising through the first four starts, Cain seemingly hit a wall with the Rockies in town.
Then at Coors, less than a week after the pounding he took in SF, he totally shutdown the Rockies.
This year, Cain's also relatively cruised through the first four starts of the season. Will Rockies eat him up again in SF?
I don't know. Cain is unpredictable. But I'm sticking with him.
Yes, there's a chance that the SF bats will not show up again for Cain, but it's a chance I'm willing to take, since only Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart can hit Cain.
Start or sit? Start with slight trepidation.
Cliff Lee is Good
On his first start as a Seattle Mariner, Cliff Lee exceeded expectations, throwing seven shutout innings, allowing just three base runners, and striking out eight.
As mentioned in my previous post, I sat Lee, concerned that the Texas Rangers bats may get to him and Colby Lewis would be tough against the M's hitters. Well, I was wrong and right.
Lee did not get the win, as predicted, but his peripherals were better than I'd anticipated. Much better.
It's obviously a very small sample-size, but his sparkling Safeco Field debut may be a preview of what expect from Lee this season.
As mentioned in my previous post, I sat Lee, concerned that the Texas Rangers bats may get to him and Colby Lewis would be tough against the M's hitters. Well, I was wrong and right.
Lee did not get the win, as predicted, but his peripherals were better than I'd anticipated. Much better.
It's obviously a very small sample-size, but his sparkling Safeco Field debut may be a preview of what expect from Lee this season.
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