Start or Sit: Jeff Niemann at Mariners

In order to not only survive, but do well in fantasy, you have to keep your reality in check and away from your fantasy.

Just because you love the Seattle Mariners, you cannot load up on M's arms nor stock up on M's bats. Doug Fister will get pounded right when you finally decide to start him at home against the Oakland Athletics, and with or without help from his team, Milton Bradley is simply not a fantasy baseball contributor.

I'm talking about the M's not just because it's my hometown team that I've been following since 1990 - after a brief one year infatuation with the San Francisco Giants - but I am conflicted about starting the Tampa Bay right-hander Jeff Niemann against them at Safeco Field.

Putting my personal feelings for the M's aside, let's just get to the analysis.

Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners Batters
Niemann's seen relative success against the bats of M's, holding the core group (Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Ken Griffey Jr, and Jose Lopez) to BA of .250 or below in six or more plate appearances, except for Chone Figgins, who owns a 4 for 6 mark and 3 RBI. Despite the low BAA, the M's have made their hits count, with 3 of 7 hits being home runs.

Jeff Niemann vs Seattle Mariners
Niemann owns a 1-0 record against the Mariners in three starts, the lone win coming in his away start at Safeco, where he gave up three runs, all of them coming on a HR by Lopez in the 5th. In his second start at Safeco, he went on to give up two more HRs (Russell Branyan and Jr) and ended up yielding four runs in total, the latter two scoring with him pulled from the game. In his start against the M's at home, he gave up three runs, two of which came on a HR by Ichiro. In two starts at Safeco, Niemann has a 4.63 ERA, .094 WHIP and .190 BAA, giving up 6 ER on 8 H and 3 BB to go with 8 K in 11 2/3 IP.

Trends and Injuries
Niemann's K/9 has declined this year while he's been giving up more home runs, both of which are disturbing signs. On the other hand, he still owns an ERA of 2.96 to go along with WHIP of 1.02. His xFIP sits at 4.89, so we can bet that his ERA should balloon at any point.

The Mariners are on a 5-game losing streak as the Rays offense have seemingly awoke from a slumber, having scored 13 runs in the last two games after scoring just 5 in the previous 3 games at home against the Kansas City Royals. During the losing streak, the M's have scored just nine runs, batting a collective .190.

Opposing Pitcher
The Rays face Ryan Rowland-Smith, in a rematch of last September's game in Tampa that the M's ended up winning on what turned out to be a game-winning homer by Lopez in the 8th. The Hyphen is not having the same type of success he saw in the second half of last year after coming off the DL. Currently, he holds 5.28 ERA and 1.38 WHIP overall, but is holding opponents to a .167 BAA at home in two starts. The big Australian left-hander has been pretty tough against the Rays bats, holding them to a collective .233 BA, Willy Aybar, Carl Crawford, and Evan Longoria being the only Rays regulars with .333 or better BA.

The Call: Start
Putting my fondness for my M's aside, I'm cautiously optimistic about Niemann's chance at a win and pretty good peripherals.

Cliff Lee is Good

On his first start as a Seattle Mariner, Cliff Lee exceeded expectations, throwing seven shutout innings, allowing just three base runners, and striking out eight.

As mentioned in my previous post, I sat Lee, concerned that the Texas Rangers bats may get to him and Colby Lewis would be tough against the M's hitters. Well, I was wrong and right.

Lee did not get the win, as predicted, but his peripherals were better than I'd anticipated. Much better.

It's obviously a very small sample-size, but his sparkling Safeco Field debut may be a preview of what expect from Lee this season.

Start or Sit: Cliff Lee vs Rangers

RT @deannaingeno: LIKE OMG, that Cliff Lee guy is back tonight? Let's all freak out over nothing! *Sigh*

I do hope no one is out there "freak[ing] out" about Cliff Lee making his 2010 season and Seattle debut for the Mariners. It's an exciting and intriguing event for Mariners and baseball fans alike, but it's not that big of a deal. But I'll admit that it'll be an interesting start one way or another.

Cliff Lee's first assignment as an M's could turn out to be a tough one. Let's break it down by various factors.

Cliff Lee vs Texas Rangers Batters
Not only does the Texas Rangers bats have pretty good career numbers against the M's newly-acquired southpaw, across the lineup, from the veterans (Vladimir Guerrero and Michael Young), to the relatively new (Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton), and even the part-timers with small sample sizes.

Cliff Lee vs Texas Rangers
Throughout Lee's career, he's mostly struggled against the Rangers, allowing a robust .311 BAA and 1.62 WHIP, but managed a 5-3 record in eight starts, thanks in part to the Cleveland Indians teams that used to put up runs on the board.

Of the three quality starts in eight appearances, two of them game at home (Cleveland), the only games in which the Rangers were visitors, which suggests that Lee was victimized by the offense-friendly confines of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, and could benefit from the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Trends and Injuries
Despite Nelson Cruz nursing his tender little hammy on the DL, the Rangers are ranked 5th in runs scored during the past seven days and Ian Kinsler will make his 2010 debut (he had a nice little warm-up game on Wednesday for the Double-A Frisco with two singles and a stolen base).

Lee is finally off the 15-Day DL (strained oblique) after having missed five starts, he'll make his 2010 debut. He sparkled in his rehab start on Sunday for Class AAA Tacoma (six shutout innings), but the difference between MLB and AAA may make a large impact on the tonight's numbers.

Opposing Pitcher
The Rangers' Colby Lewis will be on the mound opposing the M's bats and in his first start of the 2010 season, he held the M's to just one earned run, while allowing nine base runners in seven innings for the 6-2 win at home. Despite allowing four earned runs in his last outing on 4/25 against the Detroit Tigers, Lewis still struck out ten batters, the second time he's accomplished the feat (4/14 @CLE) in the young season.

It will be interesting to see how many runs Lewis gives up tonight, as he has given up one more run in each of his four starts, starting with one. Will it be five runs or does the count get reset to one, since it's he's facing the M's again?

The Call: Start or Sit?
I'm not taking any chances and sitting Lee. I foresee Lee giving up a good amount of hits and I don't like the chances of M's scoring too many runs tonight, so it'll be a reach for me to hope for a low WHIP win from Lee. I'm glad he's finally off the DL and can do something for the M's and my FT in the long run, but I'll let him get his "spring training" in on his own time and on my bench.

BS'ing Time

If a band were to write a song about Blowing Saves Time, will it make a hit?

I don't think so.

David Aardsma joined the BS Club (Chad Qualls, the president, welcomed him with open arms, while Carlos Marmol only gave him an upside down nod) tonight, serving up two dramatic home runs to Paul Konerko and Alex Rios.

Why can't these closers just be perfect?