The Non-Save & Save Fears, Plus Other Fears that Make My 'Pits Wet

With the game tied at three a piece in The Windy City, Lou Piniella summoned the services of Carlos Marmol to face, at minimum, the number two to four Washington Nationals hitters.

Admittedly, I expected the worst. I thought about the worst possible scenario. Marmol walks two, coughs up a double to the left field ivies, the Nats take a two-run lead. Jim Riggleman calls upon Tyler Clippard (since Matt Capps needs a day off), to close it out against the top of the Cubs lineup. Clippard, given the golden chance to shine, also gets wild and gives up the base on balls to Theriot on four-straight pitches, only to eventually serve up the game typing homer to Derek Lee. The game goes on forever and I go to sleep crying.

No. Marmol came in and got it done by inducing two fly outs from Ian Desmond and Christian Guzman, and with Adam Dunn on second base, he coaxed a grounder to second base from Josh Willingham to close out the inning.

Clippard time? No. With a firm intent to rest the young Clippard, Riggleman stuck with Brian Bruney and he got wild and alternated singles and walks twice while just getting one out to allow Cubs and their Wrigley to celebrate the win at home. Marmol got the precious win and Team Inchon rejoiced.

Saved from possibly most terrible non-save fear come true, and feeling too lucky to have Jonathan Sanchez leading by three guns against Roy Halladay, when I saw the Chad Qualls was called in to save a three-run game for the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field, a different type of fear sank its teeth into my heart: The Save Fear.

I pictured the worst. No, that was just a replay of Qualls getting rocked at home against the St. Louis Cardinals on 4/21. Then I turned MLB.tv to the game in Colorado. Todd Helton got on base by staring at the low sinker on a full-count pitch. Uh oh.

But things got a bit better. Much better, at least for the time being. Qualls went on to strikeout Troy Tulowitzki and Seth Smith. Then it got horrible. Qualls gave up a solid single to shallow center to Miguel Olivo. Then Bryan Price ran to the mound to have a little chat with Qualls. Leave the man alone. Or hopefully, Price gave Qualls the scoop on Ian Stewart. Lord only knows what he said, but Stewart promptly singled in Helton, on a 0-1 pitch just off the plate. God, please, no. Clint Barmes? Please. No. Jason Giambi pitch hit. Lefties have been killing Qualls, and he has been clutch for the Rockies in pitch hit situations.

Qualls started off with a ball, then with the crowd on its feet, sneaked in a fastball in the outside corner to even up the count.

On the third pitch, Qualls offered a hard sinker off the plate and Giambi fouled it off, late with the swing.

On the 1-2 pitch, Qualls fooled Giambi and he swung and missed on a sinker to the ground. Qualls twirled on the mound and pumped his fist. I got a couple of paper towels and wiped the sweat from my 'pits.

No. Wait. What's this? Sanchez was in trouble. in the top of the fifth, Shane Victorino singled then Polacido Polanco walked. With Utley at bat with no outs, both runners moved up with a double steal. Trouble trouble trouble.

Even though Sanchez got Utley to ground to first, Victorino scored and Polanco advanced to third. Still more trouble up ahead. Ryan Howard dug in, and fouled off the first pitch way up in the air and into the coward past the third base line. More sweat in the 'pits. Guillermo Mota warming up in the 'pen. Please, Sanchez, make it stop. With a 79 MPH slider, Sanchez got Howard to half-heartedly swing at the offering on the 1-2 pitch. After unable to get Howard to chase upstairs, Sanchez threw a 90 MPH fastball on the outside corner and got the desperately needed strikeout.

Now, with two outs, Werth came to bat. After striking out twice, I was afraid of Werth doing something. Adding to the trouble was the fact that on the second pitch of the at bat, Sanchez arrived at pitch count 100. With the 102nd pitch, Sanchez got behind the count 3-1. And with the 103rd pitch of night, he threw the same pitch that hit Utley in the top of the third, and gave up the first base to Werth on balls.

After a mound visit from Dave Righetti, Sanchez went ahead 0-1 to Ben Francisco, but it was clear that he was laboring and having a hard time finding the strike zone with his pitches. He was trying for the corners, nibbling, afraid of contact. He got behind 2-1 and threw to first. He should have forgot about Werth on first. He threw to first again without making an offering to the plate. Bad news. But it was OK. Francisco popped out to shallow left to end the inning. Disaster averted. WHIP got a beating, though, obviously. But Sanchez earned a win as the Giants bat went on to tack on a pair of runs on the bullpen preserved the lead.

Bench Party Hosted by Qualls

There are some parties that you can always crash: As long as you know where and when the party is, you can just show up and drink and eat other people's booze and food.

On the other hand, the parties that you can never crash and are never invited to are the Bench Parties.

Chad Qualls held himself a nice bit of a Bench Party last night, partially thanks to the ineffectiveness of Aaron Heilman - who gave up an extra run to turn a four-run lead into a save situation for the Arizona Diamondbacks - and the Lucky Charm that is Kirk Gibson, filling in for the ejected A.J. Hinch.

Given that benching Verlander turned out all right - preventing him from beefing up my ERA and WHIP (4 ER and 2.00 WHIP in 5 IP) - and I didn't kick myself too much for not benefitting from his first win of his season, I decided to show Qualls the bench. I argued that I needed Qualls to give me a reason to believe and trust in him and his ballet moves on the mound. I backed up the argument with the fact that the heart of the Philadelphia Phillies have battered Qualls (historical) and pointed to the 1/3 IP disaster on 4/21 against the St. Louis Cardinals (recent trend).

Needless to say, Qualls came through, inducing a groundout from Palcido Polanco and notching that elusive save for the Arizona Diamondbacks . . . on my bench.

Now the question is, do I invite myself to the Qualls party, knowing fully well that it's perfectly possible for him to a lay another ERA and WHIP explosion or perhaps even some INF bombs?

Is Qualls finally starting to get into the groove of things or was it just a lucky result, born out of a special circumstance (the ejection of Hinch, the said Lucky Charm, and Heilman's mess)?

Let's hope that it's a turning point. Since Quall's relative ineffectiveness in Los Angeles (2 BS) and at home against the Cardinals (4 ER in 2 1/3 IP 1 SV), Qualls, Hinch, and the rest of the Diamondbacks needed an outing like this: A confidene building small step.

Despite the offensive ERA and WHIP, Qualls have been a victim of poor defense and high BIBAP thus far.

Give credit to Hinch for stirring up the pot a bit and getting himself kicked out of the game, Gibson for making the right moves, and Qualls for doing his job (finally).

Yes, I'm plugging Qualls right back into the starting lineup and hoping for the best, and hoping for more smirky smiles from Gibson and company.

Qualls Quandary

It's very easy to say, "Here we go, again," year after year, but it's also just as hard to have to deal with it.

Qualls is again in question and we have to wonder if this guy's hiding an injury, just having a rough time budding from a long winter slumber, still not fully 100% from the knee surgery, plain dead (arm- and skills-wise), or all of the above.

I say it's a combination of some of the mentioned factors (coming back from the surgery, having a rough start to the season - seems like his sinker isn't sinking as much and his slider isn't as sharp - and a case of poor luck: .444 BABIP) plus being poorly managed.

Last night A.J. Hinch brought in Qualls to start the top of the ninth in a 4-4 tie game at home to face lefty Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals' no.5 hitter who'd gone 2 for 3 with a triple and a homer.

Bringing in the closer in a tie game at the top of the ninth at home? By the book, right? Sure, but when we consider that the said closer had pitched two straight nights for a total of 37 pitches and is off to the worst season start since 2006 (to the tune of 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 5 1/3 IP), it's justified to question and second guess Hinch's decision to bring in Qualls.

If Qualls were an elite closer, then perhaps Hinch's attempt at nurturing Quall's damaged confidence - imagine if everything worked out as Hinch had planned: Qualls comes in, goes 1-2-3, with 2 K and a ground out, and gets the win thanks to Chris Synder's 2nd home run of the year, the Diamondbacks' manager is smart for believing in his closer and Qualls owners rejoice - but the fact is that he's a mediocre closer coming off a knee surgery ruined the possible fairy tale ninth.

One of my fellow dynasty league manager pointed to what's happened to Brad Lidge (don't look now, but he's KILLING it in his rehab appearances!), how a knee issue can render even the near-elite into a Joe Borowski.

Obviously, go pick up your Gutierrez. But don't go crazy and straight drop Qualls. I have a feeling Qualls will be the saves leader on the Diamondbacks at the end of this season. Yes . . . here we go, again! Bring on the balloooooned ERA and WHIP (for a handful of saves)!

Summoning the Closer in the 8th

Why?

Why bring in your closer in the 8th inning, risking his effectiveness in the 9th?

OK, fine, because the set-up or the mop-up guy has gotten himself and the team into a nasty jam and your closer is the steel-nerved savior.

How many times have you painfully witnessed your closer trotting out into the diamond in the 8th with runners in scoring position only to watch helplessly as your fantasy baseball team's ERA and WHIP ballooned?

In the past three days, Chad Qualls and Jason Frasor were called upon to get four outs to earn a save. Both closers came through, but Frasor's outing yielded ugly numbers of 13.50 ERA and 3.00 WHIP.

After Jeremy Accardo plunked two Yankees in-a-row on Monday (7/6) in the 8th to load the bases, Frasor came in and promptly walked in a run before giving up two earned runs of his own (a bloop single by Hideki Matsui) in the 9th for the save. Phew. When is Scott Downs coming off the DL?

On the flip-side, you have to love the less-than-an-inning saves. Especially the one-out save.

On Sunday (7/5), MacDougal had to save Scott Olsen's 116-pitch outing against the Atlanta Braves, and he did it in the most interesting fashion by allowing two runners of his own after Olsen served-up three runs on a long home-run by Nate McLouth with two outs.

Mike MacDougal's K/B Ratio is Scary

Ever since I brought up the whole lack-of-saves issue, my 'pen has posted the following line:

6.2 IP, 1 W, 5 SV, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, and 0.75 WHIP

(With Mike MacDougal contributing four out of five base-runners allowed.)

Not bad. After getting a surprising day off on Friday (minor back stiffness), David Aardsma came back on Saturday to close it out against the Red Sox, his former team, Kevin Gregg capped off a drama-less week after the fugly BS@DET (6/23), and MacDougal and Chad Qualls (in an apparent response to my last post) picked up a pair of saves each.

All right, it was better than not bad, it was f'ing brilliant.

But as mentioned above, MacDougal is having some issues throwing strikes, and his saves are not pretty.

Have you ever watched this guy pitch? I didn't get to check him out back in 2003 and 2005 when he was closing for the Kansas City Royals, but when he throws for the Washington Nationals, you can totally understand why the Chicago White Sox let him go after just 4.1 IP earlier in the year.

Donning the White Sox black, the man posted a K/B ratio of 1:1, doling out exactly seven hits and seven walks to a tune of 12.46 ERA, numbers that look more like a lunch hour indicator rather than that of a major league pitcher.

MacDougal throws heat: 93-98 with movement. He also throws with his eyes closed. Or he might as well. In an at-bat against Matt Diaz with a runner on first with just an out, MacDougal fired cheese near Diaz's face, bounced a couple, and threw one away, allowing a walk on five pitches.

With two-on, he was able to induce a line-out and a ground-out, "earning" the save, but his inability to command his fastball, not to mention his inability to strike batters out (still posting nearly a perfect 1:1 K/B ratio with the Nationals at 12:11) makes you wonder how long this charade can last.

Obviously, I am hoping for at least until the end of the year, since he's one of the five closers I have on Team Inchon (along with Aardsma, Qualls, Gregg, and Scott Downs/Jason Frasor), but I am certainly afraid. Very afraid.

Qualls Must be a Bad Word in Some Countries

When I moved Alex Rios for Chad Qualls about a month ago, I thought I got a sweet deal. One of my manager friends in our dynasty league still calls it a "slam dunk" in my favor, but I still have to cry about him today.

Since the acquisition, he's posted the following line for Team Inchon (Not including this afternoon's BS):

12 IP, 2 SV, 4 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Okay, honestly, I still feel that I got a sweet deal. But I'd be lying if I said that I've been impressed with Qualls. I'd still be lying if I said that I'm content with Qualls. I'm starting to basically hate the man. I definitely fully resent him right now.

Going into the ninth with the Diamondbacks nursing a single-run lead, I IM'd the above mentioned friend:

Watch Qualls fuck up this one, too.

Sure, I dearly hoped that I'd be wrong and I was just protecting myself from the coldest, most heartless closer known to fantasy baseball owners, but I honestly believed that Qualls was not going to be able to protect the one-run lead.

After starting out the bottom of the ninth with a nice 1-2 count, Qualls allowed a single, as he wasn't able to coax Jerry Hairston to swing out of the strike zone. The 2-2 pitch was very close to a called strike but of course, it was not, and on the 8th pitch of the at bat, Qualls served up a fastball high and middle of the zone and Hairston pulled it into left for a single.

After Hairston got on, Joey Votto blasted a fly ball all the way to the wall that Alex Romero flat-out missed. I mean, the man, filling in for the injured Eric Byrnes, simply lost track of the ball as he backed into the digital scoreboard in left. Where do I write hatemails to Romero?

To make things worse, Jose Lopez was not able to turn a possible double play, as he dropped the ball (!) while transferring it from the glove to his throwing hand, after Mark Reynolds made a great diving stop of a sharply hit ball by Brandon Phillips.

And the tying run scored on a grounder up the middle that Qualls got a piece of with his foot and, well, that was that. I couldn't even finish watching the inning.

Sure, it wasn't entirely Qualls's fault, but I can still blame him for refusing to strike out anyone. The decrease on his K-rate is alarming to say the least (less than 5 per 9).

On a related note (another downer), I lost the arms race for the sole SP-qualified closer-type in Dan Meyer, as another owner moved about half his team for Adrian Gonzalez and Meyer.

On a positive note (but with a slight downer), Derrek Lee took it out of Wrigley Field twice tonight, appeasing the pain of the open wound that was the homer Reynolds ripped on my bench.

Launch Party on the Bench

On the day Team Inchon bats for a combined 6/38 for a lousy BA of .158 with just two runs, no homers, three RBI, and a stolen base, guess what type of production is left on the bench?

Mark Reynolds & David Ortiz combined: 3/8, 3 R, 2 HR, and 4 RBI

In an apparent child-like tongue-wagging response to my decision to bench them after their lack-luster first two games of the weekend series, both Mark Reynolds and David Ortiz homered, as their replacements (Derek Lee and Nelson Cruz, respectively) managed just a single run and RBI (News Flash: Nelson Cruz still refuses to show up since his huge May).

I have to admit that I've been pretty lucky this year with regards to Bencher's Regret. But then again, for the most of the first two and a half months of this MLB season, I had perhaps the shallowest bench in the league, with the DL-stints of Vladimir Guerrero and Alex Rodriguez, and prospects Andrew McCutchen, Matt LaPorta, Lars Anderson, and David Price taking up valuable roster space.

Well, here come the pain. Even before the two-homer launch party on the bench between Reynolds and Ortiz that I wasn't invited to, I nearly lost it when Yovani Gallardo gave up a three-run bomb to Brandon Inge. My original idea was to just start Verlander and hope for the best, but the Yovi-temptation was too much for me to deny.

Ummm, I think I very much preferred it when Gallardo was up by a run and would have been very happy to have taken the Gallardo win at 1-0 as opposed to the Verlander win at 3-2.

In the end, I just couldn't bare the thought of making the wrong win-call between Gallardo and Verlander. I didn't think I would have been able to handle a good but winless outing by Verlander and see an even better performance by Gallardo on the bench. In the end, I should have stuck with my initial gut-feeling of Verlander win at home, despite the temptation and the possibility of serious Bencher's Regret.

On the flip side to all these regrets and second guesses, Alex Rodriguez's two-RBI return to the starting line-up was mildly reassuring at best, while I was thankful that my Mariners got the win without scuffing the stats of Chad Qualls - thanks to Tony Clark's inability to catch the baseball with his glove.