Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Sit or Start: Jonathan Sanchez vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4/13/2011

In the 3rd start of the young 2011 season (4/13/2011, 10:15 ET), Jonathan Sanchez draws the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 2nd time, looking to avenge the loss he took at Dodger Stadium on his own turf, at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Jonathan Sanchez vs Dodgers
Historically, Sanchez owns a very flawed set of numbers against the Dodgers, but he went 2-0 in his last 2 starts against the hated rivals in 2010 allowing just 7 hits, 1 walk, and 1 earned run on a solo home run, while striking out a total of 21 batters in 14 innings. Including the first start of the 2011 season, Sanchez owns a 2-1 record with 14 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 1 HR, and 29 K in 19 2/3 IP.

Jonathan Sanchez vs Dodgers Batters
3 of the 8 Dodgers regulars have a better than .300 AVG in at least 10 AB against Sanchez (Jamey Carroll, Rod Barajas, and Matt Kemp) while the rest of the bats are batting no better than .167 with significant number of ABs.

Trends and Injuries
The Giants have lost 4 out of 6 games against Dodgers in the 2011 season, dropping 3 out of 4 in the first series and splitting the first 2 games of the current 3-game series.

Despite giving up just 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings during his first match up (4/1/2011) against the Dodgers, Sanchez took the loss as the Giants defense committed 2 crucial errors (including his own) and offense generated just 3 runs against Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers bullpen.

Sanchez did give up 7 hits and issued 3 bases on balls, but he limited the earned runs allowed by dialing up 8 strikeouts, picking off Rafael Furcal, and inducing a double play while allowing base runners in all but one of the frames he pitched in.

Carroll will continue to step in for the injured (broken thumb) Furcal for the Dodgers, probably improving both the Dodgers' offense and defense.

Opposing Pitcher
Ted Lilly gets his 3rd start of the season for the Dodgers and will try to complete 5 innings for the first time in 2011. In his last start against the Giants, Lily gave up 4 ER on 6 H in just 4 2/3 IP and took the loss.

The Call: Start
Sanchez's recent numbers against the Dodgers and utter domination of 66% of the Dodgers starting lineup during his career begs for the start despite the ugly career numbers.

Prediction: W, 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K.

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